A giant sunspot may be about to erupt, sending out the most powerful form of solar flares growing for days.
Stock image of the Sun. A giant sunspot may be about to
produce X-class solar flares. |
Sunspot AR3089, which is facing towards the Earth, has now developed
a delta-class magnetic field, meaning that it has built up enough energy that
it may release X-class solar flares.
According to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA), there is around a five percent chance that the sunspot will release an
X-class flare. If it does, the flare may trigger a powerful geomagnetic storm
in the Earth's atmosphere, possibly resulting in damage to infrastructure and
electromagnetic communication systems.
Sunspots are darker areas on the sun's surface where coronal
magnetic fields are particularly strong. When these strong magnetic fields
realign themselves, this can eject solar flares, which are spurts of
electromagnetic radiation, as well as giant plumes of solar plasma known as
coronal mass ejections (CMEs).
According to spaceweather.com, delta-class fields are
usually associated with higher levels of solar activity, due to causing very
big sunspots with a reversed magnetic polarity.
Solar flares ejected from sunspots are classified based on
how powerful the X-rays are: C-class, M-class and X-class. C-class flares are
common and have few noticeable effects on Earth, M-class flares are medium
intensity and may cause minor geomagnetic storms, while X-class flares are the
most powerful, but least frequent. X-class flares are 10 times more powerful
than M-class, and an X10 flare is in turn 10 times more powerful than an X1
flare.
While the chances of an X-class flare occurring from sunspot
AR3089 is low, if one were to occur, the resulting geomagnetic storms could
have damaging effects on the Earth. According to NASA, X-class flares hitting
Earth may result in damage to satellites, global transmission problems,
worldwide radio blackouts, and potentially give airline passengers near the
North and South poles small radiation doses.
GPS radio signals must pass through the Earth's ionosphere
between the Earth receiver and the satellite in orbit, meaning that when a
geomagnetic storm is in effect and the ionosphere is disturbed, the radio
signal is distorted and the receivers cannot accurately get a position.
The largest and most powerful X-class flare to hit the Earth
is thought to have caused the 1859 Carrington Event, which resulted in bright
aurorae being seen around the world, and caused sparking and even fires in some
telegraph stations. It's thought that if a storm of this magnitude occurred
today, it would result in extended outages of the electrical power grid.
The sun's activity follows 11-year cycles, with its sunspot
activity levels and subsequent number of solar flares and CMEs increasing as it
approaches the solar maximum. The last solar minimum was in December 2019, and
the next solar maximum is forecasted for 2025, however, the sun's activity is
higher than previously predicted for its cycle stage.
Solar Cycle 25, the current cycle, is the 25th cycle that
has occurred since we began recording sunspot activity in 1755, and according
to spaceweather.com, "is on track to outperform" Solar Cycle 24.
Solar Cycle 24 was an average cycle in terms of sunspot
activity, meaning that more frequent and more powerful solar flares and CMEs
are to be expected in coming years compared to the previous decade.
Reference:Forbes
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